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Imagine this…

The 2024-25 NFL season officially kicks off in just 2 days.

A few months ago, your friend asked if you wanted to split the travel costs and buy 2 tickets for opening night.

On one hand, you would run through a brick wall for your team.

But on the other hand, deep down…you weren’t sure your team could beat the Super Bowl-reigning champions.

You grappled with this painful decision for weeks.

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Finally, you decided you didn’t wanna potentially suffer soul-crushing disappointment in an unfamiliar city.

So you and your friend decided to watch the game at your apartment instead with a few other diehard fans/friends.

Flash forward 2 days…

It’s 11:07 p.m.

You all have spent the past 3+ hours watching the game (and have sweated through your jerseys).

There are 3 seconds left in the 4th quarter.

The score is tied.

Your team is getting ready to kick the game-winning field goal from 47 yards.

Everyone in the room holds their breath.

“The kick is up, and it…

Is…

GOOOOOOOOD!” the broadcaster screeches.

“I f*cking KNEW they would win!” you scream as you and your friends high-five and jump around the room.

Why are you so confident about knowing the outcome now?

In today’s edition of Why We Buy 🧠 we’ll explore Hindsight Bias—why we believe we knew what would happen all along.

Let’s get into it.

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🧠 The Psychology of Hindsight Bias

Hindsight Bias, also called the Knew-It-All-Along Effect, is when you see past events as being more predictable than they actually were.

In 1975, researchers Baruch Fischhoff and Ruth Beyth-Marom asked participants to predict the likelihood of possible outcomes of President Richard Nixon’s trip to China and the Soviet Union.

Weeks after the trip, participants were asked to recall their original predictions.

Here’s where things get interesting.

Participants recalled giving a HIGHER probability of likelihood to events that actually occurred (when, in fact, they did not originally). And they recalled giving a *lower* probability of likelihood to events that didn’t occur.

This likely happens because people tend to remember information that confirms what they now know.

And if an outcome seems obvious given the information we *now* have, it feels like it was foreseeable. So we adopt it as such.

This skewed perception can lead to overconfidence in predicting future events.

Worse, if people believe they “knew it all along,” they’re unlikely to analyze outcomes and learn from mistakes.

That’s why, as a smart marketer, you need to act like a lawyer and present the cold-hard facts so your buyers make the right decisions instead of misguided ones.
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🤑 How to Apply This

Ok. So how can you apply this right now to sell more?

Service providers​
​Give a reason why people should buy

A Harvard study found people were 33% more likely to comply when ONE word was used.

The word? “Because.”

But your messaging doesn’t have to include that magical word. It just has to provide a reason.

A dog groomer learned that one of the reasons they were losing customers was because customers didn’t understand why they’d pay more for a doggy haircut than they did for their own hair.

Lead magnets​
​Kill objections immediately

People typically try a variety of solutions to solve a problem *without* finding success.

And if they’ve “failed” several times already, Hindsight Bias may lead them to assume failure is inevitable.

Consequently, they’ll be reluctant to invest again.

Jones Road knows make-up users drop a lot of money on beauty products that wind up *not* working for them.

So Jones Road immediately speaks to their prospective customers’ fear of buying another product that won’t work by helping them find their perfect shade.

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Not only does this kill a major objection, but it also shows buyers you “get them” and builds trust.​

Launches​
​Analyze your wins AND losses

Don’t just talk to the customers who buy—talk to those who don’t, too.

Interviewing *both* clarifies what works (e.g., your messaging, marketing channels, and promotions) and where you need to improve.

After each UNIGNORABLE launch, I send out a short email to people who didn’t join to uncover why.

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This feedback is crucial for boosting conversion rates in the future.

Pro tip: When sending survey requests like this, kill a common objection (that it’ll be time-consuming) by telling them exactly how quick it’ll be.

Bonus points: Even though the benefit is indirect, promising to make a charity donation for each submission leverages the law of reciprocity and can increase response rates.

(Just make sure to follow through on your promise. Duh.)​
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💥 The Short of It

What we think is happening: Customers make the most rational decisions possible *and* have really good memories.

What’s actually happening: Customers think they’re always right—even in hindsight—and have 0 evidence to back that up.

That’s why it’s your job as a smart (and ethical) marketer to guide them in the right direction so your customers can make the best, most informed buying decisions.

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Until next time, happy selling!​