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Imagine this…

It’s almost June, and the weather is getting steamy. That can only mean one thing:

Shorts Season has arrived.

You’re not about to brave a fitting room (fluorescent lighting should be illegal), so you settle for some online shopping in the comfort of your sweatpants.

After 45 minutes of aimless scrolling and blurry-eyed comparisons, you’ve finally narrowed it down to 2 contenders:

First pair: Basic shorts from a brand you’ve bought from before. (They weren’t your fave, and you barely wore them last year.) The reviews are lukewarm—just 3 out of 5 stars. Meh.

Second pair: Trendy shorts that are way more your vibe (hello, button fly!). But it’s from a brand you’ve never heard of, and there are no reviews.

You like the second pair more. But you don’t know what to expect from this brand.

“What if the quality sucks?” you think to yourself.

Next thing you know, you begrudgingly add the first pair to your cart and check out.

Why did you buy the first pair of shorts when you liked the second pair more?

In today’s edition of Why We Buy 🧠 we’ll explore the Ambiguity Effect—we tend to avoid options when the odds of a favorable outcome are unknown.

Let’s get into it.
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🧠 The Psychology of the Ambiguity Effect

Economist Daniel Ellsberg shook up the world of economics when he said that people *aren’t* rational decision-makers. *insert surprised-Pikachu meme here*

And we’re not talking about 95% of buying decisions being emotional.

We tend to avoid choices with unknown outcomes—even if those choices might ultimately be better.

It’s not just avoiding regret—it’s avoiding uncertainty when the odds aren’t known.

Because uncertainty is uncomfortable.

So we’ll play it safe—even if that means settling for a less rewarding option.

This runs so deep that we’ll pay to avoid ambiguity.

In one study, ambiguity-averse participants chose between urns, each with 100 balls.

One urn had a known mix of balls (e.g., 50 red, 50 black). The other was ambiguous (they were told the red ball count was somewhere between 0 and 100).

One choice was randomly selected, and drawing a red ball earned $1.

Participants always chose the less uncertain urn—sometimes giving up 72% of the payout—just to avoid the discomfort of not knowing the odds.

That’s why, in marketing, you’ve gotta be *crystal clear* about what buyers are getting from you.
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🤑 How To Apply This

Alright, so how can you apply this right now to sell more?

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Clearly say how you fix a painful problem

Eating healthy sounds easy…until it slams headfirst into your real life. (Y’know—jam-packed schedules, picky eaters, and zero time to meal prep.)

Suddenly, it’s really f*cking hard.

So Hungryroot nailed that specific, painful problem, then flipped it into a compelling promise:

Suddenly, sticking with a healthier diet feels easily achievable because Hungryroot tells buyers what to expect:

They’ll take all the guesswork and prep out of it, supplying you with tasty, ready-to-eat meals.

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​Spell out what’s inside the box

Allbirds doesn’t just say they sell “sustainable shoes” (without going into how they’re actually sustainable).

They detail the materials—like corn-based insoles, sugarcane-based midsoles, 100% organic cotton uppers, and recycled polyester shoelaces. They even list the carbon footprint.

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Because you know how these shoes are actually sustainable, you’re more likely to buy from Allbirds if you’re in the market for sustainable shoes.

Kill uncertainty with a comparison chart

When you’re comparing 6 SaaS tools that all promise “productivity made simple,” your brain short-circuits.

Basecamp gets it. That’s why they lay out exactly what their platform does—and what it replaces as a result.

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Because potential users instantly understand what they’re getting, they’re more likely to switch to Basecamp.

​💥 The Short of It

People are predictably irrational when probabilities are uncertain.

We can’t stand ambiguity. (We’ll even pay to avoid it.)

So if you don’t want buyers to bounce, you should clearly spell out the benefits and outcomes of your product or service.

Because when buyers know exactly what they’re getting, they’re more likely to say “yes.”
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​Until next time, happy selling!​