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Imagine this…

You’re checking into your favorite hotel.

You’ve stayed here 4 times in the past 2 years.

But this time is different.

You’ve brought your friend along for a much-needed weekend getaway. It’s her first time here.

As you both check in, the clerk lets you know the hotel is hosting a raffle.

One lucky guest will get their next stay free.

The winner will be drawn tomorrow, so time’s running out to enter.

Your friend shrugs and begrudgingly enters.

“Cool, but I never win these things. I don’t think I’ll win,” she says as she puts her name down.

But you?

You’re already envisioning getting the call letting you know you won—and mentally scoping out the spa services you’ll make reservations for.

Sure, the prize is “random.” *wink wink*

Everyone has the same odds, right?

But deep down, it just feels like this one has your name on it.

Why do you feel so certain you’ll win the raffle?

In today’s edition of Why We Buy 🧠 we’ll explore the Lucky Loyalty Effect—why we feel more likely to win a reward when we spend more with a brand.

Let’s get into it.
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🧠 The Psychology of the Lucky Loyalty Effect

Researchers found that the more effort consumers put in with a brand, the more likely they believe they’ll win random promotions tied to that brand.

The primary source fueling this belief is money spent, but it also includes time and emotions invested.

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This happens because of (subconscious) entitlement.

Our brains interpret our invested efforts as “I’ve given so much. I’ve earned this reward.”

But on a conscious level, that loyalty makes us feel lucky. (Hence, the Lucky Loyalty Effect.)

You already know it typically costs up to 7X more to acquire a new customer than it does to retain an existing one.

The Lucky Loyalty Effect turns that into a cheat code.

Because loyal buyers don’t just come back for more—they’re primed to believe they deserve more.

So when you run a chance-based promotion, they don’t see it as random.

They see it as theirs to win.

And that belief?

It fuels more clicks, engagement, and reasons to keep spending, creating a loyalty flywheel that spins round and round.

(Does anyone else have “You Spin Me Round (Like A Record)” stuck in their heads now? No? Just us?)

🤑 How To Apply This

Alright, so how can you apply this right now to sell more?
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​Use wow-worthy rewards to deepen loyalty

Kohl’s Dream Receipts promo surprised one in-store shopper per day by paying for their entire freakin’ purchase.

The result? Shoppers of all types flocked to stores.

But repeat shoppers were more likely to feel they’d earn the “reward,” even though the winner was chosen at random.

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Meanwhile, Kohl’s scored big: more foot traffic, likely more purchases, and a boost in loyalty. Not just from regulars but from first-timers who made a purchase and began investing in the brand.

All from a surprise-and-delight strategy. Score

Use gamified rewards to boost purchases—and perceived luck

During COVID, Starbucks launched “Starland,” an augmented reality game for its loyalty program.

Rewards members could win instant prizes or be entered for a chance to win a grand prize (like free drinks for an entire year).

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And the more you ordered, the more chances you had to win.

Because they’d already invested time (and money) into Starbucks (and the app), they were more likely to engage again and again, chasing that next “lucky” win with every new vanilla latte.

​Incentivize customer research with a “chance to win”

Publix incentivized shoppers to fill out their 10-minute survey (yep, *that* one, folks) with a chance to win $1,000 in Publix gift cards.

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Despite thousands likely entering, *some* 👀 frequent shoppers felt especially lucky, even though they hadn’t won anything since a 1st-grade raffle.

So they spent 10 minutes—on a SATURDAY—filling out the survey while Publix got their sought-after data.

Well played, Publix.

​💥 The Short of It

The more buyers invest in your brand—whether that’s money, time, or emotions—the more likely they’ll comply with a reward-based request.

Even though the winner is picked at random, loyal customers feel like they’ve earned it.

Use that to your advantage and watch engagement soar.
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​Until next time, happy selling!​​